The State of Travel – Q2 2021

Happy April Fools Day!  It’s the beginning of a new quarter, and the end of an unprecedented year of dealing with Covid-19, quarantines, closed borders, etc.  We thought this would be a good opportunity to take stock of the state of travel so you’re not fooled over the next few months.  We’ll also offer our thoughts on what to expect in the second quarter and beyond.

Good news and bad news on the Covid-19 front.  Vaccines are a reality, although most countries are still dealing with supply and distribution issues.  The US, UK and Israel appear to be the leaders in the race to get vaccinations, with many others just beginning to ramp up their programs.  Look for those three countries to reach or exceed the 65% level by the end of June.   (Israel is nearly there already.)  Most of the EU, Canada and Japan will get their act together and start making significant progress in vaccinating their citizens.  Vaccine passports of some sort, perhaps several different kinds, will be adopted by many countries, allowing travelers showing proof of complete vaccination to enter.  This will be somewhat controversial, but at the end of the day, travelers will be faced with a choice:  Vaccinate or face additional restrictions, including being barred from entry into certain countries.

On the bad news side of this equation, many countries are enduring a fourth significant wave of Covid-19, fueled by the multiple variants that appear to be taking over as the dominant, more contagious strain.  Much of Europe is in some form of lockdown this Easter week, as are several Caribbean islands.  South America and South Africa are both struggling to control this fourth wave.  As we predicted back in January, the race to vaccinate before these variants take hold is key to getting the virus under control.  There will be winners and losers, and the impact on the latter group will be devastating to some countries.  We believe we’ll see a continued uptick in cases here in the US for the next month, but because so many of our most vulnerable demographic groups have been vaccinated, the number of deaths and hospitalizations will continue to decline.

What does this mean for travel in Q2?  Look for all states to relax any existing quarantine requirements in favor of proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test.  We’ll still have to be careful, but we should be able to travel anywhere in the US.  International travel will slowly begin to open up, with Greece leading the way when it opens to vaccinated visitors starting in mid-May.  Croatia, Montenegro, and other Balkan states are open to US citizens now, as are The Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Costa Rica and Belize.  Look for Spain to be among the first to open to international visitors, perhaps as soon as July.  There will be others as well, but don’t count on being welcomed into Australia, New Zealand and most of Asia until late this year at the earliest.

Photo by Nick Fewings on Unsplash

So what’s an Exceptional Traveler to do about planning their next trip?  First off, get vaccinated, so that you’ll feel more confident about moving around.  And, the world will welcome you much sooner if you are vaccinated.  Second, go ahead and plan that domestic trip, including Hawaii.  Here are some great ways to get there using points and miles.  From what we’ve seen and other ET’s we’ve talked to about their recent travels, it appears that hotels and airlines have ramped up their cleaning and sanitizing procedures to very healthy levels.  As the weather improves, eating outdoors becomes much more feasible for those concerned about indoor dining, and even some museums and other indoor attractions.  From an international standpoint, it’s still best to only plan travel to a country that currently welcomes US visitors.  Even then, make sure you can cancel your plans without penalty.  There are still many terrific travel deals available, so lock them in now (as long as you can cancel) because they will vanish quickly when the world opens up.

A quick word about car rentals:  Right now, they are a mess, especially in Florida.  We’ve seen reports of rates as high as $365 a day, as well as reservations that were not honored.  We think this is a short-term problem centered around spring break, but be careful when renting a car.  If you read the fine print, you’ll see that no US car rental company actually guarantees your reservation.  Have a backup plan in case your rental car evaporates.  Visiting an area that has taxis and Uber/Lyft makes sense.

Aruba

The State of the Points and Miles Game

This is a great time to either start participating in The Game or to add to your points and miles stash.  Many credit cards are offering sign-up bonuses that are best-ever or nearly so.  There are numerous “special offers” of additional point multiples for travel, airfare, grocery store, restaurant and gas station expenditures.  This may be the best time EVER to accumulate points and miles.  Just in the last few days, we’ve learned about several creative new inducements, like these:

• Bonus points for adding an authorized user to American Express Platinum.
• 10X points for Peloton charges by Chase Sapphire Reserve cardholders.
• 10% back, 10X American Airlines miles, 10X ThankYou points for certain purchases using CitiBank-issued cards.

Remember, the best plan works backwards. . .figure out where you want to go, then develop a plan to “fund” your trip using points and miles.  If you need help with this, send us an email at phil@theexceptionaltraveler.com and we’ll be glad to help.

This is the time to start finding ways to use those points, too.  Everyone has been accumulating points for the last year, so there is a glut of points in everyone’s accounts.  That usually means there is a devaluation around the corner, as points issuers decrease their liabilities.  We don’t see that happening anytime soon, but it probably will happen when travel picks up in earnest.  In the meantime, here are some ideas for how to use those points.

Napali Coast, Kauai, Hawaii.  Photo by Braden Jarvis on Unsplash

That’s our quarterly report on the State of Travel, along with a few predictions for the months ahead.  If you have any questions, please put them in the comments section below, and we’ll respond as soon as possible.  Thanks for being part of The Exceptional Traveler network!